ADVANTAGES

New capabilities and challenges lead to the creation of new forecasting techniques. For example, the ability of the Internet to create online markets has opened new ways to integrate judgment into a prediction market (see below for a definition). Meanwhile, the rapid advance of engineering in sometimes surprising directions, such as sensing and manipulating matter and energy at a nanometer scale, opens up major discontinuities in potential forecasts, posing particularly difficult problems. The committee suggests considering the following techniques for forecasting disruptive technologies.

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